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Scaler-fit-before-split leakage, measured on embeddings

EVALUATION PARTIAL -- near-null reproduced; falsifier NOT evaluable SCOPE-LIMITED svd see artifact

Scope caveat. This run is a pilot slice -- 1,679 of the 13,535 speakers measured elsewhere on svd. It may satisfy the repeat contract and still be a narrower measurement than a later run on the same corpus; both facts are shown because either alone would mislead.

0.0042
max |delta AUC| across the cells that ran
no CI in the artifact
3 / 6
cells run / cells pre-registered
n = 10
repeats × 5 folds
n=10 repeats
1,679
speakers
28,509 recordings

Power contract (R6)

Paired Wilcoxon over 10 repeats gives a minimum attainable p of 0.001953 = 2/210, against a Holm-tightest threshold of 0.008333 = 0.05/6 for the pre-registered family. Feasible. This is arithmetic on the design, computed before the data: it says what the run could have shown, not what it did.

Pre-registered cells — including the ones that did not run

corpusbackbonerecordingsspeakersAUC, scaler fit on ALLAUC, scaler fit per folddelta (leak - honest)95% CI on deltastatus
svdwavlm28,5091,6790.73820.73820.00004[0.0000, 0.0001]RUN
svdegemaps667490.53150.5357-0.00418[-0.0063, -0.0022]RUN
coswarawavlm610720.49290.49060.00236[0.0004, 0.0048]RUN
coswaraegemapsnot yet measurednot yet measurednot yet measurednot yet measurednot yet measurednot yet measuredNOT RUN -- no cached embeddings
coughvidwavlmnot yet measurednot yet measurednot yet measurednot yet measurednot yet measurednot yet measuredNOT RUN -- no cached embeddings
coughvidegemapsnot yet measurednot yet measurednot yet measurednot yet measurednot yet measurednot yet measuredNOT RUN -- no cached embeddings

3 of 6 pre-registered cells ran. The unrun cells are the corpus-specificity arm — the part of this hypothesis that is actually novel. The near-null reproduced on SVD is a reproduction of the audited paper's point, not the new claim, so the falsifier is not evaluable and the finding is PARTIAL. Artifact self-report: all_within_pm_0.01 = True.

Reproduction provenance

artifactautoresearch_results/V6_preprocessing_leakage.json · view raw · last written 2026-07-28 14:03 UTC
objectiveROC-AUC vs clinical labels (JUDGE-FREE)
auditedApplied Soft Computing S1568494626007970
wall clock2,486.5 s (0.69 h)
written up asF5 in FINDINGS.md

What this page does not have

No 7-step reasoning entry exists for this run. The sibling convention renders Diagnosis · Citations · Hypothesis · Prediction · Verdict · Learning on every per-experiment page, sourced from a reasoning_annotations.json. This program never wrote one, and neither does it keep an append-only experiment_log.jsonl; the run history is the set of artifact files listed on the run ledger, ordered only by their write time. The pre-registered prediction for this run does exist — it is on the V6 hypothesis page, recorded before the run. Everything else on that convention’s checklist is absent here and is shown as absent rather than quietly dropped.