EVALUATION CLAIM SUPPORTED -- falsifier did NOT fire SCOPE-LIMITED svd wavlm
Scope caveat. This run is a pilot slice -- 1,679 of the 13,535 speakers measured elsewhere on svd. It may satisfy the repeat contract and still be a narrower measurement than a later run on the same corpus; both facts are shown because either alone would mislead.
Paired Wilcoxon over 10 repeats gives a minimum attainable p of 0.001953 = 2/210, against a Holm-tightest threshold of 0.003571 = 0.05/14 for the pre-registered family. Feasible. This is arithmetic on the design, computed before the data: it says what the run could have shown, not what it did.
| rank k | AUC, speaker subspace removed | AUC, top-k PCA removed | AUC, variance-matched removed | D vs top-k [95% CI] | variance removed spk / topk / matched | speaker-ID after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.6755 | 0.7320 | 0.7363 | +0.0565 [0.056, 0.058] | 0.206 / 0.345 / 0.271 | 0.251 |
| 2 | 0.6739 | 0.7302 | 0.7320 | +0.0564 [0.055, 0.058] | 0.261 / 0.616 / 0.345 | 0.249 |
| 4 | 0.6446 | 0.7189 | 0.7199 | +0.0743 [0.072, 0.078] | 0.451 / 0.718 / 0.678 | 0.234 |
| 8 | 0.6104 | 0.7025 | 0.7113 | +0.0921 [0.090, 0.094] | 0.700 / 0.812 / 0.798 | 0.207 |
| 16 | 0.5959 | 0.6692 | 0.6747 | +0.0734 [0.071, 0.076] | 0.819 / 0.879 / 0.874 | 0.193 |
| 32 | 0.5661 | 0.6529 | 0.6531 | +0.0869 [0.085, 0.088] | 0.893 / 0.926 / 0.924 | 0.189 |
| 64 | 0.5398 | 0.6287 | 0.6295 | +0.0888 [0.086, 0.091] | 0.940 / 0.959 / 0.958 | 0.187 |
Both controls are built from the data's own principal axes and remove at least as much variance as the speaker subspace, so a positive D cannot be explained by "more signal was deleted".
0.7372 · 0.7391 · 0.7393 · 0.7383 · 0.7388 · 0.7386 · 0.7372 · 0.7361 · 0.7388 · 0.7383
Mean 0.7382 over 10 repeats. Speaker-ID accuracy on unprojected embeddings 0.2780 against a chance rate of 0.0167 — the manipulation check, and it is WEAK: mean-pooled WavLM is not an x-vector, so the identity subspace estimated here is a partial one.
| artifact | autoresearch_results/V2_speaker_subspace.json · view raw · last written 2026-07-28 10:59 UTC |
| objective | ROC-AUC vs clinical labels (JUDGE-FREE) |
| audited | arXiv:2604.14354 |
| wall clock | 15,304.4 s (4.25 h) |
| written up as | F4 in FINDINGS.md |
No 7-step reasoning entry exists for this run. The sibling convention renders Diagnosis · Citations · Hypothesis · Prediction · Verdict · Learning on every per-experiment page, sourced from a reasoning_annotations.json. This program never wrote one, and neither does it keep an append-only experiment_log.jsonl; the run history is the set of artifact files listed on the run ledger, ordered only by their write time. The pre-registered prediction for this run does exist — it is on the V2 hypothesis page, recorded before the run. Everything else on that convention’s checklist is absent here and is shown as absent rather than quietly dropped.